In my final put up, we did analysis on COVID-19 demise fee primarily based on the ratio between the variety of deaths and the variety of confirmed instances. Nonetheless, this methodology is inherently flawed. Some contaminated individuals didn’t present up at a hospital or a testing station to get examined. In consequence, the demise fee is exaggerated.
Blood antibody assessments on randomly sampled residents in Santa Clara, California in early April exhibits that the variety of individuals contaminated is 55 to 85 instances greater than confirmed instances (https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/well being/santa-clara-coronavirus-infections-study/index.html). Thus, the true demise fee for individuals who contaminated with coronavirus is between 0.1% and 0.17% that are much like that of flu. We use the next charts as an instance two methods of calculating demise charges.
COVID-19 Demise Price (Flawed) = Variety of Deaths/ Variety of Confirmed Circumstances
COVID-19 Demise Price (Actual) = Variety of Deaths/Variety of Contaminated
As we will see, the possibility of COVID-19 bullet hitting the bullseye, i.e., inflicting demise, is way slimmer that seems primarily based on confirmed instances alone.
